Why I&C businesses can’t afford to delay traceable clean power

By Hazel Cockerill, Head of Trading & Pricing at Evolve Energy, Feb 26

As originally published by BusinessGreen

UK industrial and commercial (I&C) energy users have long relied on Renewable Energy Guarantees of Origin (REGOs) to evidence their renewable power sourcing – but this once-stable system is starting to show cracks. After REGOs reached record highs of around £20 per certificate in late 2023, affordability became a major new concern and this prompted many businesses to seek more cost-efficient ways to demonstrate renewable energy use. Although prices have since fallen from these record highs – with average REGO prices for the 2024–25 disclosure year falling from £2.56 in January to just £0.77 by April – this price volatility raises questions over whether REGOs represent a stable, financially sustainable long-term mechanism.

For many businesses, REGOs have been the only practical, Ofgem-recognised way to demonstrate progress on Scope 2 emissions. One certificate is issued per megawatt-hour of renewable output, providing a clear and simple framework to track renewable sourcing. But as expectations evolve, companies will increasingly need to show not just the quantity of renewable energy they procure, but also that it genuinely reflects their consumption patterns – showing exactly when and where their power was generated to ensure the claim stands up to scrutiny.

It’s important to recognise that for many businesses, REGOs are the only workable option right now. The challenge lies not in whether a business holds certificates, but in how those certificates are matched against demand. REGOs are typically redeemed over an April–March year, which means summer solar output can be retired against winter demand. That is compliant but there needs to be a step change into time-matching, or at least period matching, for customers. The credibility test investors, customers and supply chain partners are beginning to apply is moving from “do you have certificates?” to “can you demonstrate where your power came from and when”?

Underlying system dynamics are making this gap more visible. Britain’s solar output is surging: according to Financial Times analysis of University of Sheffield data, by mid-August 2025, solar had already generated 14.08 TWh, about one-third more than at the same point last year, with a new record of 14 GW over a half-hour on 8^th July 2025 – almost 40% of demand in that interval. Great news for decarbonisation, but it accentuates the day/season skew between production and some I&C consumption profiles. A restaurant or hotel portfolio peaking on dark winter evenings needs evidence that its “green” claim aligns more closely with when it actually uses electricity.

This is the context for Evolve Energy’s partnership with Enosi – a move that shifts the conversation from annual book-and-claim to asset-level, half-hourly matching. Enosi’s Powertracer platform matches export-metered generation to import-metered demand in 30-minute slices. It matches half-hourly export metered generation to import metered demand, giving generators greater control over where their energy goes and providing consumers with cleaner and traceable energy. In practice, we’re bringing multiple renewable assets into consortiums and matching customer demand to those assets’ output, with REGOs flowing from the same generation. The result is not a repudiation of certificates but an upgrade: certificates tied to a traceable supply that better resembles the customer’s actual load shape.

This matters because the UK needs more credible, investable renewable output behind REGO certificates, not less. Policy is beginning to recognise that. The UK government has extended Contracts for Difference (CfD) terms from 15 to 20 years for wind and solar, and raised administrative strike prices for offshore and onshore wind – moves explicitly aimed at restoring investor confidence after two lean auction rounds. By lowering financing costs, these longer contracts should help accelerate build-out, though progress will still depend on how quickly projects connect to the grid and how readily their output can be linked credibly to end users.

For I&C businesses and their investors, this is the commercial heart of the matter. Annual, supplier-mix certificates are a floor, not a ceiling; the direction of travel is granular traceability. Consumer-facing groups, global anchor customers and procurement teams are already signalling that they prefer evidence aligned to consumption, not just annual book-and-claim. Transition won’t happen overnight with forecasting variability, intermittency and grid bottlenecks as real constraints, but the trajectory is set and in 10–15 years’ time, this could become the standard.

That future-proofing case lands on three levels. First, it de-risks reputation as moving from annual redemption to period or half-hourly matching reduces the chance of a narrative gap – such as winter-evening load “covered” by summer-day solar – becoming a due-diligence red flag. In supply chains where majors are turning disclosure screws, being able to connect consumption to specific assets and intervals is a tangible advantage.

Second, it strengthens investor confidence. Corporate demand matched to identifiable generation supports the revenue stack that gets projects financed. It complements CfD-backed build-out by signalling that there is a market premium for traceability, not merely a certificate volume. The more of that premium the market can articulate, the faster the flywheel turns. Third, it keeps options open on cost. Even with recent softening, wholesale markets remain volatile. Half-hourly matched access to diversified assets, organised through a consortium, is a pragmatic way to participate in the transition’s upside without being locked into a bespoke agreement that takes years to negotiate and may never close.

So, what should TPIs and consultancies do now for I&C clients who’ve used REGOs for years? The answer isn’t to abandon certificates; it’s to translate them. Start by diagnosing the demand profile – when the portfolio actually consumes power – and then assess how half-hourly matching could bring generation and consumption into closer alignment through an aggregated route. Where direct PPAs make sense, pursue them; where they don’t, use the consortium to achieve traceability at scale, with the supplier carrying the contractual and shaping complexity. In all cases, ensure the certificates retired are from the assets that actually served the load, so the paperwork and the physical story match.

In short: the REGO bubble hasn’t “burst” so much as the bar has been raised. Annual certificates helped kick-start corporate decarbonisation; now stakeholders want time and place. With grid-scale matching technology, consortium access to multiple assets and policy moving to crowd capital back into projects, the capability exists to deliver it – without alienating customers who’ve done the right thing with the tools available. Those who act early will be the ones who can look their boards, their investors and their customers in the eye and prove, not just say, how their power was green at the time they used it.